ERBIL () - A US political analysis magazine has warned that a complete US military withdrawal from Iraq could mark the end of direct cooperation between Washington and Baghdad, amid uncertainty over the future framework of bilateral relations.
In a report published Thursday, War on the Rocks examined the implications of the US administration’s reported plans for a full withdrawal from Iraq, which the report said is scheduled to take effect on Sept. 30.
According to the report, a complete US military withdrawal from Iraq would mean the end of direct cooperation between the Iraqi and US governments.
War on the Rocks said the absence of a strategy defining the nature of relations between the two countries after the withdrawal, combined with domestic factors that could pull Iraq further toward Iranian influence, could result in Washington disengaging from Baghdad.
The report said US-Iraq relations had been built around security cooperation that was necessary to contain terrorist organizations such as ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
It argued that the absence of a US military presence would mean an end to that relationship, while Washington has yet to establish an alternative framework for bilateral relations.
The report also linked the future of US-Iraq relations to Baghdad’s efforts to bring armed groups under state control.
According to War on the Rocks, Washington could disengage from Baghdad because of the lack of a framework for a replacement relationship and what it described as the Iraqi government’s unsuccessful efforts to disarm armed groups.
The magazine warned that if Iraq fails to disarm the groups within the set timeframe and prevent them from being drawn further toward Iran, Washington could come to view its relationship with Baghdad as serving no useful purpose.
According to the report, the US withdrawal could either mark the beginning of a new phase in relations between Washington and Baghdad, provided that Baghdad takes control of the weapons held by armed groups and fully removes those weapons from their possession, or it could lead to a complete end to relations between the two countries.
The report warned that the latter outcome could have serious consequences for Iraq.
